Feel for the government that has not only to set out a new energy vision but deliver it. The dangers – some actual, some purely political – over the transition from one to the other sees nervous policymakers trying to have it both ways.

Take the coal phaseout: the industry would – mostly – rather hear a clear exit date so they can make plans accordingly and risky decisions, like new investment, are a bit easier. But government fear of the lights going out means fudge: it will only phase out coal if there are enough alternatives.

Well, regarding coal the industry has pretty much moved on. The fundamental shift is being made, and most plants closed, while the government settles its nerves.

Now the government’s new dilemma is the distributed energy industry and smart energy management. Once again a great idea: use energy locally.

I am not a fan of building fleets of diesel generators and subsiding them to sit it out until we need them. But if you want a distributed energy system where local groups take ownership of energy you have to face the fact that when people can make their own decisions, some people will take decisions you dislike.

If people take ownership of energy you have to face the fact that some people will take decisions you dislike. 

On the other hand, I am a fan of paying companies who have backup, emergency or other seldom-used plant  – even if it is ‘dirty diesel’ – to make it available to the system at times when we can’t meet demand in other ways or it is just generally helpful.  It has to be started up sometimes, anyway.

I am a very big fan of making it economically attractive to switch out of peak times and using demand side management. That shouldn’t be seen as rationing but an opportunity: something that’s as obvious as the off-peak rail fare.

Even better if an organisation like the NHS can reduce its energy bills by responding like this.

That’s a distributed, smart system. And if it means it’s not economic to build another CCGT – well, that was (gulp) the idea.

That’s a distributed, smart system. And if it means it’s not economic to build another CCGT – well, that was (gulp) the idea.

 

Of course, there is a big question. Is the system smart enough at this point to manage variable plant and a lot of small generation? That’s hard to predict – it depends on a huge number of factors, including how sunny the summer is, as well as how cold the winter gets. It would have helped if energy efficiency had done more to reduce the number of poorly-insulated homes and hence reduced peak demand in the winter.

The UK’s energy system at the moment feels a little like stage diving. We’ve thrown ourselves off a high place and we know there is not a big airbag of CCGT plants to make sure we don’t hit the ground with a bang. Instead, we are hoping that we’ll be held up by a mass of audience members who are all ready to reach out at the right time. It’s a bit nerve-racking.

It’s the way it will work in the end, but it’s not clear the audience reaction is big enough yet to avoid some painful impacts this winter.